基于贝叶斯网络的潜艇战损抢修优先权的研究

Research on Priority of Submarine Battle Damage Repair Based on Bayesian Network

摘要:

潜艇在作战过程中遭受战场损伤，会对潜艇的作战效能造成不良影响。正确处置战场损伤，迅速恢复作战效能，对于潜艇有效履行使命具有十分重要的意义。战损抢修讲究的是在最短时间完成抢修工作、恢复装备运行，利用贝叶斯网络具有对不确定性问题的处理能力，可以有效明确战损抢修优先权，弥补潜艇战损抢修决策不一致所带来的时间损失。主要是将潜艇上的系统设备按照相互影响关系进行网络连接，构建潜艇装备贝叶斯网络模型。通过计算各系统设备遭受破坏时对潜艇作战态势下的影响程度，确定该系统设备的战损抢修优先权。由此可以编排出各类应急处置行动的先后顺序，提高战损抢修的效率。

Abstract:

Battlefield damage suffered by a submarine during combat will have a negative impact on combat effectiveness of the submarine. Proper disposal of battlefield damage and rapid recovery of combat effectiveness are of great significance for the submarine to effectively fulfill its missions. Battle damage rapid repair is to complete the repair work and restore the operation of equipment in the shortest time. The Bayesian network has the ability to deal with uncertain problems，which can effectively clarify the priority of battle damage rapid repair and make up for the time loss caused by the inconsistent decision-making of submarine battle damage rapid repair. In this paper，the equipment of each system on the submarine is connected with the network according to the interaction relationship， and the Bayesian network model for submarine equipment is constructed. By calculating the influence degree of the equipment on submarine combat situation，the priority of battle damage repair is determined. Therefore，the sequence of various emergency disposal actions can be arranged to improve the efficiency of battle damage repair.